Beyond Textbook Theories, A Fresh Look at Money Supply and Inflation Dynamics

Hey Everyone 👋🏼

Today we’re diving deep into a topic that’s been a head-scratcher for economists and finance enthusiasts alike: the intricate relationship between money supply and inflation. Gone are the days when our economic textbooks could offer clear-cut answers. Recent trends have shown a complex, often elusive link between the amount of money circulating in our economy and the rate of inflation. But don’t worry, we’re going to unravel this together, exploring the latest shifts in money velocity and what they could mean for our future.

Who did not remember college economics class, the professor confidently proclaiming, “Inflation is all about money supply.” Fast forward to today, and the real-world scenario is far from this straightforward lesson. As I started diving into finance and economy, meeting peoples with different financial and intellectual backgrounds, advising businesses and investors, the diverse economic landscapes painted a different picture one where the old rules didn’t always apply. In bustling marketplaces of Asia to the trading floors of Wall Street, the relationship between money supply and inflation seemed more like a zig-zag than a direct correlation.

Inflation has always been a hot topic in economic discussions right ? but the last 10-15 years have thrown us a curveball. We’ve been taught that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon, a direct offspring of money supply. However, this straightforward connection has become increasingly questionable. It’s like watching a magician’s trick, you think you know how it’s done, but then the outcome surprises you.

Let’s start by understanding what we mean by money supply. In the simplest terms, it’s the total amount of monetary assets available in an economy at any given time. This includes cash, coins, and various forms of bank deposits. Traditionally, it was thought that an increase in the money supply would directly lead to inflation, as more money chasing the same amount of goods and services would naturally drive prices up.

However, the last decade has shown us that this relationship isn’t as direct as we once thought. Despite significant increases in money supply (M2), especially during and after the 2008 financial crisis and the recent pandemic, inflation remained surprisingly tame for a long time. This left many economists scratching their heads.

One key factor that might explain this anomaly is money velocity – the rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another. It’s a critical piece of the puzzle, often overlooked. When money velocity is high, each unit of currency is used frequently for transactions, potentially leading to higher inflation. Conversely, if money velocity is low, the same amount of money supply might not cause as much inflation, as it’s not being used as actively in the economy.

Today, we’re witnessing a shift in Money Velocity. After years of stagnation, it’s showing signs of picking up. This could be a harbinger of future inflation, or it might not be. The truth is, our economic environment has become incredibly complex, interwoven with global supply chains, technological advancements, and unprecedented monetary policies.

For instance, the rise of digital payment systems and fintech innovations has transformed how we use money. Money flows more rapidly and easily across borders, affecting both money supply and velocity in ways we haven’t fully grasped yet. Moreover, the psychological aspects of inflation cannot be ignored. Inflation expectations play a crucial role in how businesses set prices and how consumers spend money.

In my experience, understanding inflation in today’s world requires us to think beyond traditional models. We need to consider a multitude of factors, including geopolitical tensions, environmental changes, and even societal shifts. For example, the increasing focus on sustainability is influencing consumer behavior and business strategies, which in turn impacts economic dynamics like inflation.

Furthermore, we must recognize the role of central banks and their monetary policies. The massive quantitative easing programs and interest rate decisions in recent years have added new dimensions to the money supply-inflation relationship.

It’s like adding more players to an already complex game.

In light of these factors, it’s clear that a simplistic view of inflation as merely a product of money supply is no longer sufficient. We need to adopt a more holistic approach, one that considers the myriad of forces at play in our global economy. This includes understanding the nuances of money velocity, the impact of digital transformation, and the psychological aspects of inflation, among others.

Finally navigating these uncertain economic times, it’s crucial to keep an open mind and be ready to challenge long-held beliefs. The key to understanding inflation in the modern era lies not in clinging to outdated theories, but in embracing the complexity and interconnectedness of our global economy.

In any case, the notion that there is a simple link between money supply (or velocity) and inflation has been challenged by actual data for years. Do not believe everything you read in economic textbooks, or The Economist.

By doing so, we can better prepare ourselves for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

END.

See you next time 🙂